Article III Groupie is about to head out of town for the rest of the weekend, and she may be away from blogging and email for much of this time. Unfortunately, she won't have time to blog much about possible successors to Justice Sandra Day O'Connor (who was just spotted at Reagan National Airport, on a Northwest flight bound for Minneapolis).* Fortunately, those of us who enjoy Supreme Court nomination speculation have a little time. President Bush is not expected to announce a nominee until after he returns from the G8 summit, which is taking place in Scotland from July 6 to 8.
A3G's main thought, and an obvious one, is that Justice O'Connor's seat is the toughest one to fill on the Court. The reasons are ideological and demographic: SOC was the Court's "most moderate moderate," even more moderate than Justice Kennedy, and she was one of only two female justices. How can President Bush nominate someone who is:
(1) conservative enough to satisfy his political base, which has adopted the slogan "no more Souters";
(2) moderate enough to win confirmation by the Senate, which will closely scrutinize any possible replacement for Justice O'Connor (even more closely than one for Chief Justice Rehnquist); and
(3) not going to reduce further the "diversity" of the Supreme Court, which is now left with only one female justice?
Clearly this is a tall order. Because of factor (3), A3G is thinking that some of the leading contenders to fill a Rehnquist seat -- like judicial hottie John Roberts, J. Michael Luttig,** Michael McConnell, J. Harvie Wilkinson, and Samuel Alito (roughly in that order) -- may be out of luck this time around. But factor (2) could create problems for some of the most promising female candidates -- right-wing judicial divas like Janice Rogers Brown, UTR's reigning judicial diva, and "Federalist Society pin-up girl" Edith Jones, a.k.a. "the horsewoman of the right-wing apocalypse" (see item #3).
Right now Article 3 Groupie is leaning towards Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales as a potential SCOTUS nominee. He is a moderate conservative, or a conservative moderate. He is probably just conservative enough to satisfy President Bush's political base, but probably just moderate enough to win confirmation by the Senate (which he recently did for the post of Attorney General). He is well-liked by the President, and he is Latino, which helps on the diversity front. The implicit pitch from the White House to the Senate Democrats: "Look, we're sorry we couldn't get you a woman. But hey, at least we got you a Latino! Vote for Alberto Gonzales, and help make history by supporting the first Hispanic Supreme Court justice!" President Bush could then restore the gender balance at the Court later on in his term, by nominating a staunchly conservative woman, like Judge Brown or Judge Jones, after the departure of the staunchly conservative Chief Justice Rehnquist.
Of course, as we all know, things can change very quickly in nomination-land. A possible nomination to a high governmental position can implode in the blink of an eye. Remember how the Attorney General nomination of Judge Kimba Wood, the #1 Superhottie of the Federal Judiciary, got derailed by "Nannygate," or how the DHS nomination of Bernard Kerik got derailed by "Everything-gate"?
Now, A3G doesn't expect any crazy revelations about Judge Gonzales, who was so recently confirmed to -- and exhaustively vetted for -- the exalted post of AG. But she would like to emphasize that her ruminations on Al Gonzales are very tentative; she doesn't want to go out on a limb until more information is available. So over the next few days, A3G will be obsessively following the mainstream media coverage of the nominee selection process. (It's not that hard to do, thanks to How Appealing and the "refresh" button on her browser.)
Okay, that's all she wrote. For previous, trying-to-be-funny commentary from A3G about possible Supreme Court nominees, click here (comparing the Supreme Court nomination process to the Oscars); here ("[W]ho could resist the prospect of a case parenthetical reading, 'Lo, J., dissenting'?"); and here (mentioning Judge Consuelo M. Callahan, "The Dancing Queen of the Ninth Circuit," as a dark-horse contender to replace Justice O'Connor).
Once again, Happy July 4th!
* A3G is guessing that SOC was headed for Phoenix and just connecting through Minneapolis, which is a major Northwest Airlines hub. If so, it just goes to show: Supreme Court justices are just like us! They too must endure lengthy layovers in airports with crappy duty-free shopping.
** A "player-hating" aside: With Luttigators populating the White House Counsel's Office (and tilting internal debates over there in his favor), Judge Luttig has a very good shot of someday making it on to the Court. But if he never becomes a Supreme Court justice -- if, for example, he gets beaten out by John Roberts, Michael McConnell, Sam Alito, or Harvie Wilkinson (with whom he has traded bench-slaps) -- A3G will take some schadenfreude in that.
Judge Luttig, UTR's #1 feeder judge, can send pretty much anyone or anything into a Supreme Court clerkship. By last count, he has fed the justices several fish heads, a handful of rabbit turds, and the used undergarments of A3G's late grandmother (may she rest in peace).
Judge Luttig has fed almost all of his clerks to the Court -- regardless of their quality, regardless of whether he made a "mistake" in hiring them, and regardless of whether they are rather boring people (despite being brilliant). But he can't feed himself quite so easily. HA!
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